the third world war
5 sparks that could blow us up
THE WAR ON ISIS
At the moment, ISIS has drawn the attention of most of the world’s most powerful countries, including France, the United States, and Russia.
Even if the emerging anti-ISIS coalition prevails, conflict between major power could ensue. This could get ugly, as France, Russia, and the United States have very different views about how the future of Syria should look. If any of the three decide to intervene in favor of their preferred factions, the situation could very quickly come to resemble a game of chicken, with airstrikes, no fly zones, and secure enclaves providing the points of conflict.
INDIA-PAKISTAN WAR
India and Pakistan could go to war again for any number of reasons. If a Pakistani-sponsored terrorist group makes another attack similar to that in Mumbai, India’s patience could wear very thin. Either state could engage in some adventurism in Afghanistan, perhaps in response to the activity of non-state actors.
EAST CHINA SEA CRISIS
Over the past two years China and Japan have played a dangerous game around the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands. Both countries claim the islands, and each deployed military forces in their vicinity. A military incident could create an upsurge of nationalist hostility in both countries, making it difficult for either Tokyo or Beijing to back down.
SOUTH CHINA SEA
A U.S.-China war would be catastrophic, but depending on the context and course of the conflict, both Japan and India might feel the need to intervene. Russia would likely stay out, but might use its defense-industry to keep the Chinese military operating. War would result in a clash between the U.S. Air Force and U.S. Navy on one side, and the PLA’s anti-access, area denial systems on the other.
THE UKRAINE CRISIS
Russia continues to view the political allegiance of the Kiev government as a critical national security interest. If it cannot command that allegiance, then Moscow can take steps to destabilize and weaken the country. Thus far, the United States and NATO have limited their exposure, supporting the right of the Kiev government to resist Russia, but not providing it much in the way of means to do so.
Much depends on how NATO countries decide to respond to Russian moves in Ukraine. If Russia became sufficiently certain of NATO intervention, then it could take steps to pre-empt NATO mobilization. Any attack, or serious threat of attack, against a NATO country could then trigger a NATO response, which could involve attacks into Russian territory. The Kaliningrad enclave could provide a key flashpoint for escalation, as military forces within the enclave are simultaneously threatening and vulnerable. And if Russia believes that it cannot prevail with conventional force (a possibility), Moscow could consider the use of tactical nuclear weapons.
